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Jan 23, 2023
Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China's Storm?
Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China's Storm?
By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack, As I and many of my subscribers have noticed, many of the key commodity drivers of inflation have seeming rolled over. European gas prices, Chinese pork prices, oil prices, US corn prices among others have weakened to levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Strangely, weak commodity prices should be disastrous for my key trade, long GLD short TLT, and yet strangely it has breached new cycle highs. Why is this? The first thing that should be said is that commodity investing is hard. Surprises in short term demand and supply can drive huge moves in spot markets. A good example is pork prices. Pork is particularly big driver of Chinese inflation. Chinese and US pork prices have recently fallen significantly. I have no idea why pork prices have fallen. The reopening of China would have made me think short term demand for pork would be higher, and hence prices would be rising. That they are falling, suggests mayb
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